Everyday Killings in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The typical count of everyday homicides each month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh administrative statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have advised that homicide figures could fail to signal improved national stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded over these months is very significant,” the President remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest amount of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in the past few years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an apparently sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader said: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key pillars of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

However, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder statistics to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to correctly identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it could hide days when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean makes spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

But despite these actions, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s very successful, socially it’s very problematic,” Vargas said.